ABS confirms what ALNA warned for a decade: 80% of tobacco is now illicit
- Ben Kearney
- Jun 5
- 2 min read
Experimental estimates released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 3 June have laid bare the scale of Australia's illicit tobacco crisis. Using nicotine traces detected in wastewater across 60 sites nationally, the ABS found that illicit sources now account for 80% of all nicotine consumed in Australia — up from just 12% in 2017.
The figures vindicate what ALNA has been warning for ten years. Far from cutting smoking, relentless excise increases have simply pushed consumers to cheaper illegal product. Total nicotine consumption has actually risen almost 40% since 2017, while legal tobacco sales have collapsed to less than a third of their former level. Legal tobacco prices have nearly tripled since 2016, climbing around 12% a year on excise alone, while illicit prices have barely moved.
The fiscal damage is just as stark. Household spending on legal tobacco has fallen back to 2016 levels, gutting the very excise revenue the policy was built on, even as more people smoke more.
This is precisely the extraordinary policy failure ALNA detailed in our recent submission to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee inquiry into the illegal tobacco crisis, titled ‘Catch Me if You Can’. We have consistently argued that successive governments designed tobacco policy around legitimate sales data while organised crime quietly captured the market, leaving honest, compliant retailers exposed to lost trade, uninsurable risk and intimidation.
The ABS has now put hard numbers behind our case. ALNA will keep pressing for an immediate freeze on excise increases, nationally consistent enforcement that targets organised crime rather than compliant retailers, and real support for the businesses doing the right thing.
Sources and further reading:
ALNA Submission to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee inquiry into the illegal tobacco crisis HERE
ABS release — Household consumption of illicit tobacco and nicotine products: https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/household-consumption-illicit-tobacco-and-nicotine-products
ABC News — ABS estimates 80% of tobacco used in Australia is illegal: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-03/abs-estimates-80pc-of-tobacco-used-in-australia-illegal/106756000
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